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(With an asterisk for 2013, when the guildhad a tie.)
So does this meanNomadlandcan start saving a little place in its van for a Best Picture statuette?
Oscar history suggest we should hold off on the coronation.
Other recent front-runners have hit these marks, too, only to falter at the last minute.
We all knowhow that turned out.
Still, there are a few reasons why Im increasingly certain thatNomadlandcan go the distance.
Its theBirdmanand theBoyhood.
However, whileNomadlandmissed the cut there, so too did most of the other Best Picture nominees.
OnlyThe Trial of the Chicago 7andMinarimade it in.
But the A24 movie faces its own hurdles namely, its many stylistic and thematic similarities withNomadland.
Theyre not identical movies, certainly, but the contrast is far less stark than1917versusParasite, orGreen Bookversus.Roma.
Finding a way to differentiate itself will be the biggest hurdle ofMinarisphase two.
Then theresPromising Young Woman.
In sum: The other nominees paths to victory are slim, whileNomadlandenjoys a wide open road.
Theres not even anOscar villainthis year!
Under the circumstances, I can see aNomadlandwin simply becoming a fait accompli.
